Samsung can’t afford to play it safe with Apple’s first foldable looming

The dynamic is about to change. There’s always a bigger fish, and in this case that’s Apple. Industry experts have long predicted that Apple’s entry into the market was the only thing that could bring foldables from a niche interest to a mainstream hardware category, and all evidence suggests that in September we’ll find out if that’s true. “The launch of Apple’s first foldable iPhone will mark a turning point for the foldable segment,” says IDC analyst Francisco Jeronimo in a report predicting the company will claim an enormous 34 percent of the foldable market by value in its first year.

To carry on with the aquatic metaphors, Samsung will hope that a rising tide lifts all boats, increasing the size of the foldable market for everyone. But there’s just as big a risk that Apple’s arrival leaves Samsung floundering, eating into its sales and disrupting the market dominance it’s spent seven years building.

Getting ahead of Apple with a similar form factor seems like smart insurance. The worst case for Samsung might be unanimous agreement that the foldable iPhone is excellent, with nothing in its stable that compares. Introducing a wider foldable now eliminates at least that risk, while keeping its regular Flip and Fold designs around would provide cover in case those remain more popular.

Still, aping Apple carries risks, as Samsung knows all too well. Just look at how the Galaxy S25 Edge worked out. Samsung’s slim phone arrived just months before Apple introduced the iPhone Air and must have felt like a fairly safe bet. Sales never materialized though, and even the Air has been a disappointment for Apple . Then there’s Samsung’s previous foldable experiment, the Galaxy Z TriFold, which lasted less than three months in the US market. It remains to be seen if we’ll ever see a sequel.

We won’t know until tomorrow exactly what Samsung has in store, and how novel its wider foldable will prove to be. It could be another two months before we see Apple’s response, and months beyond that before we know if it transforms the foldable phone market the way analysts expect. Either way, Samsung can’t afford to wait to find out. Expanding its lineup is a gamble, but the risks of sitting still could be even greater.