Tesla’s robotaxi promises are clashing with reality

Tesla uses a mix of unsupervised and supervised vehicles as part of its fleet, but that ratio appears to be in a constant state of flux. According to the crowdsourced Robotaxi Tracker , the company currently only has 16 unsupervised vehicles in Austin, four in Dallas, and one in Houston. During the earnings call, Elluswamy was asked what was preventing Tesla from flooding the zone in Austin, where it first launched its robotaxis a year ago, as opposed to dropping a small number of vehicles in new cities.

“The reason we have been expanding across different cities, instead of just doubling down on a single city, is that we want to make sure that our stack is a very general one,” Elluswamy said. “It is a general one. We just want to like, you know, both prove to ourselves and to other folks that it is working across a lot of different cities without too much effort per city.”

Another limiting factor is state regulations. New Jersey is considering a bill that would essentially ban robotaxis without multiple sensors, like radar and lidar. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco flagged this on the call, noting “there seems to be some evolving regulations at the state level, potentially around sensor requirements.” To which Tesla’s vice president of vehicle engineering Lars Morvay acknowledged “obviously the stuff in New Jersey, you know, is a little bit disheartening.”

A more restrictive regulatory environment could limit the total addressable market for Tesla robotaxis, which would clash with the company’s message about a more generalized service that can drive anywhere, under any conditions.

Safety is another obstacle. Musk’s comment about wanting to avoid running over anyone’s pet appeared to be a subtle swipe at Waymo, which has hit and killed a number of animals over the past several years. But Tesla’s safety record is a mixed bag. We don’t have a lot of great insight into Tesla’s robotaxi crashes because the company tends to redact a lot of the important details.

According to the Robotaxi Tracker, the company’s fleet has been involved in approximately 18 incidents, 56 percent of which were the fault of another driver. And Tesla’s Full Self-Driving is under investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, with the potential for a future recall. Tesla’s robotaxis are currently running version 15 of FSD, as compared to version 14.3.6 on its customer vehicles.

Tesla is asking investors, supporters, and customers to look past these shortcomings as it continues to push the message that it’s robotaxi program is growing. But the company continues to run into a reality that contradicts that message.

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